Statball

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Seattle Mariners
1
0% — our call
Final
Pittsburgh Pirates
5
100% — our call
Seattle Marinersgame flow — win probabilityPittsburgh Pirates
100500startB1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8now
Statball’s live prediction, not a league stat. Dark fill: Pirates in control. Red fill: Mariners. The dot is right now — runners and outs included.

Runs by inning

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Mariners · 6 H, 0 EPirates · 8 H, 1 E
100%
Pirates win — Statball prediction
Kalshi price of “Pirates win” — pays $1 if they do
our live number minus theirs
pregame pick

Latest plays

top 9Julio Rodríguez flies out to center fielder Billy Cook.
top 9Cal Raleigh strikes out swinging.
top 9J.P. Crawford grounds out to first baseman Ryan O'Hearn.
bot 8Billy Cook flies out to center fielder Julio Rodríguez.
bot 8Ryan O'Hearn singles on a line drive to right fielder Victor Robles. Bryan Reynolds scores. Nick Gonzales to 3rd.15
bot 8Nick Gonzales grounds into a force out, fielded by third baseman J.P. Crawford. Brandon Lowe out at 3rd. Bryan Reynolds to 2nd. Nick Gonzales to 1st.
bot 8Bryan Reynolds walks.
bot 8Brandon Lowe singles on a line drive to center fielder Julio Rodríguez. Henry Davis scores.14

Context the model prices

Seattle Mariners
5 on the injured list (1 star) · bullpen threw 33 batters faced over the last two days
Josh Naylor 1-3 · Randy Arozarena 1-3 · J.P. Crawford 1-5, 1 RBI
Pittsburgh Pirates
5 on the injured list · bullpen threw 22 batters faced over the last two days
Brandon Lowe 2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI · Henry Davis 2-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI · Bryan Reynolds 1-3

Updates every minute while live. Every percentage on this page is a Statball prediction — our proprietary models price far more than the box score: team strength, starting pitchers, injuries, bullpen workload, lineups, and the live game state. Market price is the live Kalshi mid where an open market exists. Pregame picks and the season ledger live on Today’s Picks.