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Seattle Mariners
1
0% — our call
Final
Pittsburgh Pirates
11
100% — our call
Seattle Marinersgame flow — win probabilityPittsburgh Pirates
100500startB1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8now
Statball’s live prediction, not a league stat. Dark fill: Pirates in control. Red fill: Mariners. The dot is right now — runners and outs included.

Runs by inning

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Mariners · 7 H, 1 EPirates · 15 H, 0 E
100%
Pirates win — Statball prediction
Kalshi price of “Pirates win” — pays $1 if they do
our live number minus theirs
pregame pick

Latest plays

top 9Luke Raley strikes out swinging.
top 9Dominic Canzone flies out sharply to center fielder Billy Cook. Julio Rodríguez to 3rd. Josh Naylor to 2nd.
top 9Weston Wilson flies out to right fielder Esmerlyn Valdez.
top 9Josh Naylor singles on a line drive to left fielder Jake Mangum. Julio Rodríguez to 2nd.
top 9Julio Rodríguez singles on a line drive to center fielder Billy Cook.
bot 8Endy Rodríguez grounds out, first baseman Josh Naylor to pitcher Alex Hoppe.
bot 8Ryan O'Hearn doubles (11) on a sharp line drive to right fielder Luke Raley. Billy Cook scores.111
bot 8Nick Gonzales grounds out, shortstop Colt Emerson to first baseman Josh Naylor.

Context the model prices

Seattle Mariners
5 on the injured list (1 star) · bullpen threw 11 batters faced over the last two days
Josh Naylor 2-4 · Julio Rodríguez 2-4, 1 RBI · Cole Young 1-3
Pittsburgh Pirates
4 on the injured list · bullpen threw 11 batters faced over the last two days
Ryan O'Hearn 4-5, 3 RBI · Endy Rodríguez 2-4, 3 RBI · Bryan Reynolds 2-4, 1 RBI

Updates every minute while live. Every percentage on this page is a Statball prediction — our proprietary models price far more than the box score: team strength, starting pitchers, injuries, bullpen workload, lineups, and the live game state. Market price is the live Kalshi mid where an open market exists. Pregame picks and the season ledger live on Today’s Picks.