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Miami Marlins
2
0% — our call
Final
Pittsburgh Pirates
3
100% — our call
Miami Marlinsgame flow — win probabilityPittsburgh Pirates
100500startB1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8now
Statball’s live prediction, not a league stat. Dark fill: Pirates in control. Red fill: Marlins. The dot is right now — runners and outs included.

Runs by inning

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Marlins · 7 H, 0 EPirates · 8 H, 0 E
100%
Pirates win — Statball prediction
Kalshi price of “Pirates win” — pays $1 if they do
our live number minus theirs
pregame pick

Latest plays

top 9Liam Hicks grounds out softly, pitcher Gregory Soto to first baseman Spencer Horwitz.
top 9Connor Norby strikes out swinging.
top 9Javier Sanoja reaches on a fielder's choice out, shortstop Jared Triolo to second baseman Brandon Lowe. Esteury Ruiz out at 2nd. Javier Sanoja to 2nd.
top 9Esteury Ruiz singles on a ground ball to left fielder Jake Mangum.
bot 8Brandon Lowe grounds out, second baseman Xavier Edwards to first baseman Connor Norby.
bot 8Spencer Horwitz hit by pitch. Tyler Callihan scores. Jake Mangum to 3rd. Jared Triolo to 2nd.23
bot 8Jared Triolo walks.
bot 8Jake Mangum singles on a ground ball to center fielder Jakob Marsee. Tyler Callihan to 3rd.

Context the model prices

Miami Marlins
7 on the injured list (2 stars) · bullpen threw 19 batters faced over the last two days
Otto Lopez 2-3 · Heriberto Hernández 1-4, 1 RBI · Esteury Ruiz 1-1
Pittsburgh Pirates
4 on the injured list · bullpen threw 46 batters faced over the last two days
Jake Mangum 2-4 · Tyler Callihan 2-4 · Ryan O'Hearn 2-4, 1 RBI

Updates every minute while live. Every percentage on this page is a Statball prediction — our proprietary models price far more than the box score: team strength, starting pitchers, injuries, bullpen workload, lineups, and the live game state. Market price is the live Kalshi mid where an open market exists. Pregame picks and the season ledger live on Today’s Picks.