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Miami Marlins
8
100% — our call
Final
Pittsburgh Pirates
3
0% — our call
Miami Marlinsgame flow — win probabilityPittsburgh Pirates
100500startB1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B9now
Statball’s live prediction, not a league stat. Dark fill: Pirates in control. Red fill: Marlins. The dot is right now — runners and outs included.

Runs by inning

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Marlins · 11 H, 0 EPirates · 6 H, 1 E
0%
Pirates win — Statball prediction
Kalshi price of “Pirates win” — pays $1 if they do
our live number minus theirs
pregame pick

Latest plays

bot 9Endy Rodríguez strikes out swinging.
bot 9Esmerlyn Valdez strikes out on a foul tip.
bot 9Nick Gonzales singles on a ground ball to center fielder Jakob Marsee.
bot 9Ryan O'Hearn flies out to center fielder Jakob Marsee.
top 9Jakob Marsee strikes out swinging.
top 9Owen Caissie grounds into a double play, shortstop Jared Triolo to first baseman Spencer Horwitz. Heriberto Hernández out at 2nd. Owen Caissie out at 1st.
top 9Heriberto Hernández walks.
bot 8Bryan Reynolds grounds out, second baseman Xavier Edwards to first baseman Kyle Stowers.

Context the model prices

Miami Marlins
7 on the injured list (2 stars) · bullpen threw 36 batters faced over the last two days
Liam Hicks 3-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI · Heriberto Hernández 2-4, 1 RBI · Kyle Stowers 2-4, 1 RBI
Pittsburgh Pirates
3 on the injured list · bullpen threw 48 batters faced over the last two days
Endy Rodríguez 2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI · Brandon Lowe 1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI · Bryan Reynolds 1-4

Updates every minute while live. Every percentage on this page is a Statball prediction — our proprietary models price far more than the box score: team strength, starting pitchers, injuries, bullpen workload, lineups, and the live game state. Market price is the live Kalshi mid where an open market exists. Pregame picks and the season ledger live on Today’s Picks.