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Chicago Cubs
1
0% — our call
Final
Pittsburgh Pirates
12
100% — our call
Chicago Cubsgame flow — win probabilityPittsburgh Pirates
100500startB1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8now
Statball’s live prediction, not a league stat. Dark fill: Pirates in control. Red fill: Cubs. The dot is right now — runners and outs included.

Runs by inning

123456789153112
Cubs · 8 H, 1 EPirates · 15 H, 3 E
100%
Pirates win — Statball prediction
Kalshi price of “Pirates win” — pays $1 if they do
our live number minus theirs
pregame pick

Latest plays

top 9Michael Busch flies out to center fielder Jhostynxon Garcia.
top 9Nico Hoerner grounds into a force out, shortstop Konnor Griffin to third baseman Jared Triolo. Carson Kelly out at 3rd. Dansby Swanson to 2nd. Nico Hoerner to 1st.
top 9Kevin Alcántara called out on strikes.
top 9Dansby Swanson walks. Carson Kelly to 2nd.
top 9Carson Kelly singles on a ground ball to left fielder Jake Mangum.
bot 8Esmerlyn Valdez strikes out swinging.
bot 8Marcell Ozuna singles on a line drive to center fielder Kevin Alcántara. Nick Gonzales scores.112
bot 8Jake Mangum grounds out, third baseman Pedro Ramírez to first baseman Michael Busch. Jared Triolo scores.111

Context the model prices

Chicago Cubs
10 on the injured list (2 stars) · bullpen threw 21 batters faced over the last two days
Alex Bregman 2-4 · Carson Kelly 2-4 · Ian Happ 1-4, 1 RBI
Pittsburgh Pirates
2 on the injured list · bullpen threw 26 batters faced over the last two days
Spencer Horwitz 2-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI · Oneil Cruz 3-3, 1 RBI · Esmerlyn Valdez 1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI

Updates every minute while live. Every percentage on this page is a Statball prediction — our proprietary models price far more than the box score: team strength, starting pitchers, injuries, bullpen workload, lineups, and the live game state. Market price is the live Kalshi mid where an open market exists. Pregame picks and the season ledger live on Today’s Picks.