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Chicago Cubs
1
0% — our call
Final
Pittsburgh Pirates
2
100% — our call
Chicago Cubsgame flow — win probabilityPittsburgh Pirates
100500startB1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8now
Statball’s live prediction, not a league stat. Dark fill: Pirates in control. Red fill: Cubs. The dot is right now — runners and outs included.

Runs by inning

123456789111
Cubs · 6 H, 2 EPirates · 8 H, 0 E
100%
Pirates win — Statball prediction
Kalshi price of “Pirates win” — pays $1 if they do
our live number minus theirs
pregame pick

Latest plays

top 9Carson Kelly grounds out, second baseman Brandon Lowe to first baseman Spencer Horwitz.
top 9Nico Hoerner grounds out to first baseman Spencer Horwitz.
bot 8Konnor Griffin flies out sharply to center fielder Pete Crow-Armstrong.
bot 8Marcell Ozuna strikes out swinging.
bot 8Oneil Cruz singles on a line drive to center fielder Pete Crow-Armstrong. Bryan Reynolds to 2nd.
bot 8Nick Gonzales strikes out swinging.
bot 8Bryan Reynolds singles on a line drive to center fielder Pete Crow-Armstrong.
top 8Michael Conforto strikes out swinging.

Context the model prices

Chicago Cubs
10 on the injured list (2 stars) · bullpen threw 19 batters faced over the last two days
Michael Busch 1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI · Alex Bregman 2-4 · Moisés Ballesteros 2-2
Pittsburgh Pirates
2 on the injured list · bullpen threw 22 batters faced over the last two days
Henry Davis 1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI · Spencer Horwitz 2-3 · Brandon Lowe 2-4, 1 RBI

Updates every minute while live. Every percentage on this page is a Statball prediction — our proprietary models price far more than the box score: team strength, starting pitchers, injuries, bullpen workload, lineups, and the live game state. Market price is the live Kalshi mid where an open market exists. Pregame picks and the season ledger live on Today’s Picks.