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Tampa Bay Rays
1
0% — our call
Final
Pittsburgh Pirates
5
100% — our call
Tampa Bay Raysgame flow — win probabilityPittsburgh Pirates
100500startB1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8now
Statball’s live prediction, not a league stat. Dark fill: Pirates in control. Red fill: Rays. The dot is right now — runners and outs included.

Runs by inning

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Rays · 5 H, 0 EPirates · 11 H, 0 E
100%
Pirates win — Statball prediction
Kalshi price of “Pirates win” — pays $1 if they do
our live number minus theirs
pregame pick

Latest plays

top 9Cedric Mullins pops out to first baseman Ryan O'Hearn in foul territory.
top 9Ben Williamson walks.
top 9Jake Fraley flies out to center fielder Oneil Cruz.
top 9Yandy Díaz doubles (3) on a line drive to right fielder Bryan Reynolds.
top 9Jonathan Aranda strikes out on a foul tip.
bot 8Bryan Reynolds strikes out swinging.
bot 8Brandon Lowe doubles (4) on a sharp fly ball to center fielder Cedric Mullins. Billy Cook scores. Konnor Griffin scores.15
bot 8Oneil Cruz strikes out swinging.

Context the model prices

Tampa Bay Rays
4 on the injured list · bullpen threw 43 batters faced over the last two days
Jake Fraley 1-4 · Chandler Simpson 1-4 · Nick Fortes 1-3
Pittsburgh Pirates
1 on the injured list · bullpen threw 53 batters faced over the last two days
Spencer Horwitz 3-3, 1 RBI · Brandon Lowe 3-5, 2 RBI · Oneil Cruz 1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI

Updates every minute while live. Every percentage on this page is a Statball prediction — our proprietary models price far more than the box score: team strength, starting pitchers, injuries, bullpen workload, lineups, and the live game state. Market price is the live Kalshi mid where an open market exists. Pregame picks and the season ledger live on Today’s Picks.