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San Diego Padres
5
100% — our call
Final
Pittsburgh Pirates
0
0% — our call
San Diego Padresgame flow — win probabilityPittsburgh Pirates
100500startB1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B9now
Statball’s live prediction, not a league stat. Dark fill: Pirates in control. Red fill: Padres. The dot is right now — runners and outs included.

Runs by inning

1234567891211
Padres · 11 H, 1 EPirates · 7 H, 0 E
0%
Pirates win — Statball prediction
Kalshi price of “Pirates win” — pays $1 if they do
our live number minus theirs
pregame pick

Latest plays

bot 9Jake Mangum bunt grounds out softly, pitcher David Morgan to first baseman Gavin Sheets.
bot 9Konnor Griffin strikes out swinging.
bot 9Spencer Horwitz walks.
bot 9Nick Gonzales grounds out, first baseman Gavin Sheets to pitcher David Morgan.
top 9Gavin Sheets grounds out, first baseman Spencer Horwitz to pitcher Gregory Soto.
top 9Xander Bogaerts flies out to right fielder Ryan O'Hearn.
top 9Manny Machado called out on strikes.
top 9Jackson Merrill walks.

Context the model prices

San Diego Padres
8 on the injured list (1 star) · bullpen threw 37 batters faced over the last two days
Freddy Fermin 2-4 · Nick Castellanos 2-4, 1 RBI · Xander Bogaerts 2-4
Pittsburgh Pirates
1 on the injured list · bullpen threw 29 batters faced over the last two days
Spencer Horwitz 2-3 · Brandon Lowe 1-3 · Bryan Reynolds 1-3

Updates every minute while live. Every percentage on this page is a Statball prediction — our proprietary models price far more than the box score: team strength, starting pitchers, injuries, bullpen workload, lineups, and the live game state. Market price is the live Kalshi mid where an open market exists. Pregame picks and the season ledger live on Today’s Picks.