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San Diego Padres
1
0% — our call
Final
Pittsburgh Pirates
7
100% — our call
San Diego Padresgame flow — win probabilityPittsburgh Pirates
100500startB1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8now
Statball’s live prediction, not a league stat. Dark fill: Pirates in control. Red fill: Padres. The dot is right now — runners and outs included.

Runs by inning

123456789125
Padres · 3 H, 2 EPirates · 12 H, 0 E
100%
Pirates win — Statball prediction
Kalshi price of “Pirates win” — pays $1 if they do
our live number minus theirs
pregame pick

Latest plays

top 9Xander Bogaerts grounds out, second baseman Nick Gonzales to first baseman Ryan O'Hearn.
top 9Manny Machado strikes out swinging.
top 9Jackson Merrill strikes out swinging.
bot 8Oneil Cruz flies out to right fielder Fernando Tatis Jr.
bot 8Henry Davis flies out to center fielder Jackson Merrill.
bot 8Konnor Griffin singles on a ground ball to left fielder Ramón Laureano. Nick Gonzales scores. Jake Mangum scores.17
bot 8Jake Mangum singles on a line drive to right fielder Fernando Tatis Jr. Nick Yorke scores. Nick Gonzales to 3rd.15
bot 8Nick Gonzales singles on a ground ball to right fielder Fernando Tatis Jr. Bryan Reynolds scores. Ryan O'Hearn scores. Nick Yorke to 3rd.14

Context the model prices

San Diego Padres
8 on the injured list (1 star) · bullpen threw 41 batters faced over the last two days
Xander Bogaerts 1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI · Miguel Andujar 1-2 · Fernando Tatis Jr. 1-4
Pittsburgh Pirates
1 on the injured list · bullpen threw 33 batters faced over the last two days
Henry Davis 2-4 · Konnor Griffin 2-4, 2 RBI · Ryan O'Hearn 2-3

Updates every minute while live. Every percentage on this page is a Statball prediction — our proprietary models price far more than the box score: team strength, starting pitchers, injuries, bullpen workload, lineups, and the live game state. Market price is the live Kalshi mid where an open market exists. Pregame picks and the season ledger live on Today’s Picks.