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San Diego Padres
8
100% — our call
Final
Pittsburgh Pirates
2
0% — our call
San Diego Padresgame flow — win probabilityPittsburgh Pirates
100500startB1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B9now
Statball’s live prediction, not a league stat. Dark fill: Pirates in control. Red fill: Padres. The dot is right now — runners and outs included.

Runs by inning

123456789442
Padres · 10 H, 0 EPirates · 6 H, 3 E
0%
Pirates win — Statball prediction
Kalshi price of “Pirates win” — pays $1 if they do
our live number minus theirs
pregame pick

Latest plays

bot 9Jake Mangum grounds out, third baseman Miguel Andujar to first baseman Ty France.
bot 9Joey Bart strikes out swinging.
bot 9Konnor Griffin strikes out swinging.
top 9Xander Bogaerts strikes out swinging.
top 9Gavin Sheets strikes out on a foul tip.
top 9Jackson Merrill reaches on a fielder's choice. Ramón Laureano scores. Fernando Tatis Jr. to 3rd. Throwing error by first baseman Nick Yorke.72
top 9Fernando Tatis Jr. singles on a ground ball to left fielder Jake Mangum. Luis Campusano scores. Ramón Laureano to 2nd.62
top 9Ramón Laureano singles on a line drive to left fielder Jake Mangum. Luis Campusano to 3rd.

Context the model prices

San Diego Padres
8 on the injured list (1 star) · bullpen threw 32 batters faced over the last two days
Jake Cronenworth 1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI · Ramón Laureano 2-5 · Miguel Andujar 2-4
Pittsburgh Pirates
1 on the injured list · bullpen threw 30 batters faced over the last two days
Nick Yorke 3-3 · Joey Bart 1-4, 1 RBI · Oneil Cruz 1-4

Updates every minute while live. Every percentage on this page is a Statball prediction — our proprietary models price far more than the box score: team strength, starting pitchers, injuries, bullpen workload, lineups, and the live game state. Market price is the live Kalshi mid where an open market exists. Pregame picks and the season ledger live on Today’s Picks.