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Baltimore Orioles
2
0% — our call
Final
Pittsburgh Pirates
8
100% — our call
Baltimore Oriolesgame flow — win probabilityPittsburgh Pirates
100500startB1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8now
Statball’s live prediction, not a league stat. Dark fill: Pirates in control. Red fill: Orioles. The dot is right now — runners and outs included.

Runs by inning

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Orioles · 8 H, 0 EPirates · 10 H, 0 E
100%
Pirates win — Statball prediction
Kalshi price of “Pirates win” — pays $1 if they do
our live number minus theirs
pregame pick

Latest plays

top 9Dylan Beavers flies out to right fielder Billy Cook.
top 9Tyler O'Neill strikes out swinging.
top 9Samuel Basallo called out on strikes.
bot 8Ryan O'Hearn strikes out swinging.
bot 8Bryan Reynolds grounds into a force out, shortstop Gunnar Henderson to second baseman Jeremiah Jackson. Brandon Lowe out at 2nd. Bryan Reynolds to 1st.
bot 8Brandon Lowe singles on a line drive to left fielder Taylor Ward.
bot 8Oneil Cruz grounds out softly, pitcher Cade Povich to first baseman Pete Alonso.
top 8Pete Alonso strikes out swinging.

Context the model prices

Baltimore Orioles
7 on the injured list (1 star) · bullpen threw 31 batters faced over the last two days
Taylor Ward 3-4 · Jeremiah Jackson 1-3, 1 RBI · Leody Taveras 1-3
Pittsburgh Pirates
1 on the injured list · bullpen threw 30 batters faced over the last two days
Oneil Cruz 2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI · Ryan O'Hearn 2-5, 1 HR, 4 RBI · Jake Mangum 2-4

Updates every minute while live. Every percentage on this page is a Statball prediction — our proprietary models price far more than the box score: team strength, starting pitchers, injuries, bullpen workload, lineups, and the live game state. Market price is the live Kalshi mid where an open market exists. Pregame picks and the season ledger live on Today’s Picks.