Statball

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New York Mets
6
100% — our call
Final
Philadelphia Phillies
4
0% — our call
New York Metsgame flow — win probabilityPhiladelphia Phillies
100500startB1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B9now
Statball’s live prediction, not a league stat. Dark fill: Phillies in control. Red fill: Mets. The dot is right now — runners and outs included.

Runs by inning

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Mets · 11 H, 3 EPhillies · 7 H, 1 E
0%
Phillies win — Statball prediction
Kalshi price of “Phillies win” — pays $1 if they do
our live number minus theirs
pregame pick

Latest plays

bot 9Kyle Schwarber lines out sharply to right fielder Brett Baty.
bot 9Justin Crawford singles on a line drive to center fielder Carson Benge. J.T. Realmuto scores. Gabriel Rincones Jr. to 2nd.64
bot 9Gabriel Rincones Jr. reaches on a throwing error by third baseman Bo Bichette. J.T. Realmuto to 3rd.
bot 9J.T. Realmuto grounds into a force out, shortstop Zack Short to second baseman Marcus Semien. Bryson Stott out at 2nd. J.T. Realmuto to 1st.
bot 9Bryson Stott walks.
bot 9Edmundo Sosa strikes out swinging.
top 9Zack Short flies out to right fielder Derek Hill.
top 9Mark Vientos lines out to center fielder Justin Crawford.

Context the model prices

New York Mets
9 on the injured list (1 star) · bullpen threw 26 batters faced over the last two days
Juan Soto 2-4, 2 HR, 2 RBI · Carson Benge 3-5 · Marcus Semien 2-4, 2 RBI
Philadelphia Phillies
3 on the injured list · bullpen threw 39 batters faced over the last two days
Alec Bohm 2-4, 2 RBI · Justin Crawford 1-4, 1 RBI · Edmundo Sosa 1-4

Updates every minute while live. Every percentage on this page is a Statball prediction — our proprietary models price far more than the box score: team strength, starting pitchers, injuries, bullpen workload, lineups, and the live game state. Market price is the live Kalshi mid where an open market exists. Pregame picks and the season ledger live on Today’s Picks.