Statball

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San Diego Padres
2
0% — our call
Final
Philadelphia Phillies
3
100% — our call
San Diego Padresgame flow — win probabilityPhiladelphia Phillies
100500startB1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8now
Statball’s live prediction, not a league stat. Dark fill: Phillies in control. Red fill: Padres. The dot is right now — runners and outs included.

Runs by inning

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Padres · 7 H, 0 EPhillies · 9 H, 0 E
100%
Phillies win — Statball prediction
Kalshi price of “Phillies win” — pays $1 if they do
our live number minus theirs
pregame pick

Latest plays

top 9Jase Bowen strikes out swinging.
top 9Xander Bogaerts called out on strikes.
top 9Jackson Merrill strikes out on a foul tip.
bot 8Justin Crawford grounds into a force out, fielded by shortstop Xander Bogaerts. Bryson Stott out at 2nd.
bot 8Bryson Stott walks.
bot 8Alec Bohm grounds into a double play, shortstop Xander Bogaerts to first baseman Gavin Sheets. Brandon Marsh out at 2nd. Alec Bohm out at 1st.
bot 8Brandon Marsh singles on a line drive to center fielder Jackson Merrill.
top 8Miguel Andujar singles on a ground ball to third baseman Alec Bohm. Fernando Tatis Jr. out at 3rd, third baseman Alec Bohm to second baseman Bryson Stott to shortstop Trea Turner.

Context the model prices

San Diego Padres
8 on the injured list · bullpen threw 13 batters faced over the last two days
Gavin Sheets 1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI · Fernando Tatis Jr. 3-4 · Miguel Andujar 2-4
Philadelphia Phillies
1 on the injured list · bullpen threw 22 batters faced over the last two days
Brandon Marsh 4-4 · Bryce Harper 1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI · Trea Turner 2-4

Updates every minute while live. Every percentage on this page is a Statball prediction — our proprietary models price far more than the box score: team strength, starting pitchers, injuries, bullpen workload, lineups, and the live game state. Market price is the live Kalshi mid where an open market exists. Pregame picks and the season ledger live on Today’s Picks.