Statball

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Miami Marlins
1
0% — our call
Final
New York Mets
10
100% — our call
Miami Marlinsgame flow — win probabilityNew York Mets
100500startB1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8now
Statball’s live prediction, not a league stat. Dark fill: Mets in control. Red fill: Marlins. The dot is right now — runners and outs included.

Runs by inning

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Marlins · 3 H, 1 EMets · 9 H, 1 E
100%
Mets win — Statball prediction
Kalshi price of “Mets win” — pays $1 if they do
our live number minus theirs
pregame pick

Latest plays

top 9Liam Hicks lines out to third baseman Brett Baty.
top 9Xavier Edwards grounds out, shortstop Vidal Bruján to first baseman Mark Vientos.
top 9Esteury Ruiz flies out to right fielder Carson Benge.
bot 8Jared Young lines out sharply to center fielder Jakob Marsee.
bot 8Vidal Bruján lines out sharply to center fielder Jakob Marsee.
bot 8MJ Melendez flies out to left fielder Heriberto Hernández.
top 8Heriberto Hernández grounds out, shortstop Vidal Bruján to first baseman Mark Vientos.
top 8Connor Norby flies out to center fielder A.J. Ewing.

Context the model prices

Miami Marlins
6 on the injured list (2 stars) · bullpen threw 27 batters faced over the last two days
Owen Caissie 2-2, 1 RBI · Kyle Stowers 1-4 · Heriberto Hernández 0-2
New York Mets
8 on the injured list (1 star) · bullpen threw 36 batters faced over the last two days
Marcus Semien 2-2, 1 HR, 2 RBI · Juan Soto 2-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI · Carson Benge 1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI

Updates every minute while live. Every percentage on this page is a Statball prediction — our proprietary models price far more than the box score: team strength, starting pitchers, injuries, bullpen workload, lineups, and the live game state. Market price is the live Kalshi mid where an open market exists. Pregame picks and the season ledger live on Today’s Picks.