Statball

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Miami Marlins
1
0% — our call
Final
New York Mets
6
100% — our call
Miami Marlinsgame flow — win probabilityNew York Mets
100500startB1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8now
Statball’s live prediction, not a league stat. Dark fill: Mets in control. Red fill: Marlins. The dot is right now — runners and outs included.

Runs by inning

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Marlins · 6 H, 1 EMets · 10 H, 0 E
100%
Mets win — Statball prediction
Kalshi price of “Mets win” — pays $1 if they do
our live number minus theirs
pregame pick

Latest plays

top 9Christopher Morel strikes out swinging.
top 9Owen Caissie pops out to shortstop Vidal Bruján.
top 9Leo Jiménez grounds out, shortstop Vidal Bruján to first baseman Mark Vientos.
bot 8Vidal Bruján grounds out, first baseman Christopher Morel to pitcher William Kempner.
bot 8Marcus Semien grounds out, third baseman Leo Jiménez to first baseman Christopher Morel.
bot 8A.J. Ewing flies out to right fielder Owen Caissie.
top 8Jakob Marsee flies out to left fielder Juan Soto.
top 8Kyle Stowers called out on strikes.

Context the model prices

Miami Marlins
6 on the injured list (2 stars) · bullpen threw 13 batters faced over the last two days
Liam Hicks 3-4, 1 RBI · Xavier Edwards 1-3 · Leo Jiménez 1-3
New York Mets
8 on the injured list (1 star) · bullpen threw 22 batters faced over the last two days
Jared Young 2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI · Carson Benge 3-4 · Hayden Senger 1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI

Updates every minute while live. Every percentage on this page is a Statball prediction — our proprietary models price far more than the box score: team strength, starting pitchers, injuries, bullpen workload, lineups, and the live game state. Market price is the live Kalshi mid where an open market exists. Pregame picks and the season ledger live on Today’s Picks.