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Pittsburgh Pirates
7
0% — our call
Final
New York Mets
11
100% — our call
Pittsburgh Piratesgame flow — win probabilityNew York Mets
100500startB1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8now
Statball’s live prediction, not a league stat. Dark fill: Mets in control. Red fill: Pirates. The dot is right now — runners and outs included.

Runs by inning

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Pirates · 10 H, 1 EMets · 11 H, 0 E
100%
Mets win — Statball prediction
Kalshi price of “Mets win” — pays $1 if they do
our live number minus theirs
pregame pick

Latest plays

top 9Oneil Cruz strikes out swinging.
top 9Henry Davis flies out to left fielder Juan Soto.
top 9Nick Gonzales doubles (1) on a sharp line drive to right fielder Carson Benge. Ryan O'Hearn scores. Jared Triolo scores.711
top 9Spencer Horwitz strikes out swinging.
top 9Jared Triolo doubles (1) on a line drive to center fielder Luis Robert Jr. Ryan O'Hearn to 3rd.
top 9Ryan O'Hearn singles on a sharp ground ball to right fielder Carson Benge.
bot 8Francisco Alvarez pops out to second baseman Brandon Lowe.
bot 8Carson Benge walks.

Context the model prices

Pittsburgh Pirates
0 on the injured list · bullpen threw 0 batters faced over the last two days
Brandon Lowe 2-4, 2 HR, 3 RBI · Ryan O'Hearn 2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI · Nick Gonzales 2-4, 2 RBI
New York Mets
1 on the injured list · bullpen threw 0 batters faced over the last two days
Francisco Alvarez 2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI · Carson Benge 1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI · Marcus Semien 2-5, 1 RBI

Updates every minute while live. Every percentage on this page is a Statball prediction — our proprietary models price far more than the box score: team strength, starting pitchers, injuries, bullpen workload, lineups, and the live game state. Market price is the live Kalshi mid where an open market exists. Pregame picks and the season ledger live on Today’s Picks.