Statball

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New York Mets
9
100% — our call
Final
Miami Marlins
4
0% — our call
New York Metsgame flow — win probabilityMiami Marlins
100500startB1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B9now
Statball’s live prediction, not a league stat. Dark fill: Marlins in control. Red fill: Mets. The dot is right now — runners and outs included.

Runs by inning

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Mets · 16 H, 0 EMarlins · 6 H, 2 E
0%
Marlins win — Statball prediction
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Kalshi price of “Marlins win” — pays $1 if they do
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our live number minus theirs
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pregame pick

Latest plays

bot 9Pitcher Austin Warren picks off Javier Sanoja at 1st on throw to first baseman Brett Baty.
bot 9Graham Pauley called out on strikes.
bot 9Javier Sanoja walks.
top 9Bo Bichette grounds out, second baseman Javier Sanoja to first baseman Griffin Conine.
top 9Juan Soto grounds into a double play, second baseman Javier Sanoja to catcher Brian Navarreto to first baseman Griffin Conine. Brett Baty out at home. Nick Morabito to 3rd. Francisco Lindor to 2nd. Juan Soto out at 1st.
top 9Francisco Lindor singles on a ground ball to shortstop Otto Lopez. Brett Baty to 3rd. Nick Morabito to 2nd.
top 9Nick Morabito singles on a ground ball to third baseman Graham Pauley. Brett Baty to 2nd.
top 9Brett Baty walks.

Context the model prices

New York Mets
0 on the injured list · bullpen threw 0 batters faced over the last two days
A.J. Ewing 3-5, 3 RBI · Bo Bichette 2-5, 1 RBI · Nick Morabito 2-4, 1 RBI
Miami Marlins
0 on the injured list · bullpen threw 0 batters faced over the last two days
Graham Pauley 1-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI · Jakob Marsee 2-4 · Javier Sanoja 2-3, 1 RBI

Updates every minute while live. Every percentage on this page is a Statball prediction — our proprietary models price far more than the box score: team strength, starting pitchers, injuries, bullpen workload, lineups, and the live game state. Market price is the live Kalshi mid where an open market exists. Pregame picks and the season ledger live on Today’s Picks.