Statball

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Boston Red Sox
4
100% — our call
Final
Miami Marlins
2
0% — our call
Boston Red Soxgame flow — win probabilityMiami Marlins
100500startB1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B9now
Statball’s live prediction, not a league stat. Dark fill: Marlins in control. Red fill: Sox. The dot is right now — runners and outs included.

Runs by inning

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Sox · 9 H, 1 EMarlins · 9 H, 0 E
0%
Marlins win — Statball prediction
Kalshi price of “Marlins win” — pays $1 if they do
our live number minus theirs
pregame pick

Latest plays

bot 9Javier Sanoja grounds out to first baseman Willson Contreras.
bot 9Jakob Marsee strikes out swinging.
bot 9Xavier Edwards bunt grounds out to first baseman Willson Contreras. Owen Caissie to 2nd.
bot 9Owen Caissie singles on a line drive to right fielder Wilyer Abreu.
top 9Adley Rutschman grounds out, shortstop Otto Lopez to first baseman Kyle Stowers.
top 9Willson Contreras grounds out, second baseman Xavier Edwards to first baseman Kyle Stowers. Nick Sogard to 3rd. Wilyer Abreu to 2nd.
top 9Ceddanne Rafaela grounds out, second baseman Xavier Edwards to first baseman Kyle Stowers. Nick Sogard to 2nd.
top 9Nick Sogard singles on a ground ball to right fielder Griffin Conine. Anthony Seigler scores.42

Context the model prices

Boston Red Sox
0 on the injured list · bullpen threw 0 batters faced over the last two days
Mickey Gasper 2-2, 1 RBI · Jarren Duran 2-4 · Anthony Seigler 1-3, 1 RBI
Miami Marlins
0 on the injured list · bullpen threw 0 batters faced over the last two days
Heriberto Hernández 2-4 · Otto Lopez 2-4, 1 RBI · Xavier Edwards 1-5, 1 RBI

Updates every minute while live. Every percentage on this page is a Statball prediction — our proprietary models price far more than the box score: team strength, starting pitchers, injuries, bullpen workload, lineups, and the live game state. Market price is the live Kalshi mid where an open market exists. Pregame picks and the season ledger live on Today’s Picks.