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Pittsburgh Pirates
13
100% — our call
Final
Miami Marlins
1
0% — our call
Pittsburgh Piratesgame flow — win probabilityMiami Marlins
100500startB1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B9now
Statball’s live prediction, not a league stat. Dark fill: Marlins in control. Red fill: Pirates. The dot is right now — runners and outs included.

Runs by inning

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Pirates · 16 H, 1 EMarlins · 3 H, 0 E
0%
Marlins win — Statball prediction
Kalshi price of “Marlins win” — pays $1 if they do
our live number minus theirs
pregame pick

Latest plays

bot 9Jakob Marsee lines out sharply to center fielder Jake Mangum.
bot 9Esteury Ruiz called out on strikes.
bot 9Javier Sanoja lines out to right fielder Esmerlyn Valdez.
bot 9Owen Caissie homers (13) on a fly ball to center field.131
top 9Jhostynxon Garcia grounds out, pitcher Javier Sanoja to first baseman Leo Jiménez.
top 9Brandon Lowe flies out sharply to left fielder Esteury Ruiz.
top 9Spencer Horwitz singles on a fly ball to shortstop Otto Lopez.
top 9Rafael Flores Jr. homers (3) on a fly ball to left field. Jake Mangum scores. Jared Triolo scores.130

Context the model prices

Pittsburgh Pirates
0 on the injured list · bullpen threw 0 batters faced over the last two days
Rafael Flores Jr. 2-5, 2 HR, 6 RBI · Jared Triolo 3-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI · Jacob Gonzalez 1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
Miami Marlins
0 on the injured list · bullpen threw 0 batters faced over the last two days
Owen Caissie 1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI · Griffin Conine 1-2 · Jakob Marsee 1-4

Updates every minute while live. Every percentage on this page is a Statball prediction — our proprietary models price far more than the box score: team strength, starting pitchers, injuries, bullpen workload, lineups, and the live game state. Market price is the live Kalshi mid where an open market exists. Pregame picks and the season ledger live on Today’s Picks.