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Pittsburgh Pirates
2
0% — our call
Final
Miami Marlins
8
100% — our call
Pittsburgh Piratesgame flow — win probabilityMiami Marlins
100500startB1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8now
Statball’s live prediction, not a league stat. Dark fill: Marlins in control. Red fill: Pirates. The dot is right now — runners and outs included.

Runs by inning

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Pirates · 6 H, 0 EMarlins · 9 H, 1 E
100%
Marlins win — Statball prediction
Kalshi price of “Marlins win” — pays $1 if they do
our live number minus theirs
pregame pick

Latest plays

top 9Esmerlyn Valdez grounds out, third baseman Javier Sanoja to first baseman Leo Jiménez.
top 9Ronny Simon singles on a ground ball to third baseman Javier Sanoja. Nick Gonzales to 2nd.
top 9Nick Gonzales walks.
top 9Spencer Horwitz grounds out, first baseman Leo Jiménez to pitcher Victor Vodnik.
top 9Bryan Reynolds strikes out swinging.
bot 8Agustín Ramírez strikes out swinging.
bot 8Jakob Marsee lines out to left fielder Bryan Reynolds.
bot 8Heriberto Hernández walks. Griffin Conine to 2nd.

Context the model prices

Pittsburgh Pirates
0 on the injured list · bullpen threw 0 batters faced over the last two days
Ronny Simon 2-4 · Nick Gonzales 2-3 · Brandon Lowe 1-4
Miami Marlins
0 on the injured list · bullpen threw 0 batters faced over the last two days
Griffin Conine 2-2, 1 HR, 1 RBI · Heriberto Hernández 1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI · Agustín Ramírez 2-5, 1 RBI

Updates every minute while live. Every percentage on this page is a Statball prediction — our proprietary models price far more than the box score: team strength, starting pitchers, injuries, bullpen workload, lineups, and the live game state. Market price is the live Kalshi mid where an open market exists. Pregame picks and the season ledger live on Today’s Picks.