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San Diego Padres
5
100% — our call
Final
Miami Marlins
3
0% — our call
San Diego Padresgame flow — win probabilityMiami Marlins
100500startB1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B9now
Statball’s live prediction, not a league stat. Dark fill: Marlins in control. Red fill: Padres. The dot is right now — runners and outs included.

Runs by inning

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Padres · 13 H, 1 EMarlins · 5 H, 0 E
0%
Marlins win — Statball prediction
Kalshi price of “Marlins win” — pays $1 if they do
our live number minus theirs
pregame pick

Latest plays

bot 9Joe Mack strikes out swinging.
bot 9Javier Sanoja grounds out, shortstop Sung-Mun Song to first baseman Ty France.
bot 9Jakob Marsee flies out to left fielder Jase Bowen.
top 9Manny Machado grounds out, third baseman Leo Jiménez to first baseman Kyle Stowers.
top 9Jake Cronenworth flies out to right fielder Javier Sanoja.
bot 8Leo Jiménez lines out to right fielder Fernando Tatis Jr.
bot 8Liam Hicks hit by pitch.
bot 8Xavier Edwards grounds out, second baseman Jake Cronenworth to first baseman Ty France.

Context the model prices

San Diego Padres
0 on the injured list · bullpen threw 0 batters faced over the last two days
Jackson Merrill 2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI · Manny Machado 2-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI · Jake Cronenworth 3-5
Miami Marlins
0 on the injured list · bullpen threw 0 batters faced over the last two days
Kyle Stowers 2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI · Javier Sanoja 1-2 · Xavier Edwards 1-4

Updates every minute while live. Every percentage on this page is a Statball prediction — our proprietary models price far more than the box score: team strength, starting pitchers, injuries, bullpen workload, lineups, and the live game state. Market price is the live Kalshi mid where an open market exists. Pregame picks and the season ledger live on Today’s Picks.