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New York Mets
0
0% — our call
Final
Miami Marlins
4
100% — our call
New York Metsgame flow — win probabilityMiami Marlins
100500startB1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B9now
Statball’s live prediction, not a league stat. Dark fill: Marlins in control. Red fill: Mets. The dot is right now — runners and outs included.

Runs by inning

1234567894
Mets · 5 H, 0 EMarlins · 9 H, 1 E
100%
Marlins win — Statball prediction
Kalshi price of “Marlins win” — pays $1 if they do
our live number minus theirs
pregame pick

Latest plays

bot 9Heriberto Hernández hits a grand slam (2) to center field. Esteury Ruiz scores. Liam Hicks scores. Xavier Edwards scores.04
bot 9Devin Williams intentionally walks Xavier Edwards. Liam Hicks to 2nd.
bot 9Liam Hicks walks.
bot 9Javier Sanoja out on a sacrifice bunt, third baseman Brett Baty to first baseman Mark Vientos. Esteury Ruiz to 3rd.
bot 9Christopher Morel doubles (3) on a line drive to left fielder Tyrone Taylor.
top 9Carson Benge called out on strikes.
top 9Luis Torrens walks.
top 9Tyrone Taylor grounds out, third baseman Javier Sanoja to first baseman Graham Pauley.

Context the model prices

New York Mets
9 on the injured list (2 stars) · bullpen threw 27 batters faced over the last two days
A.J. Ewing 2-4 · Bo Bichette 1-4 · Brett Baty 1-3
Miami Marlins
4 on the injured list · bullpen threw 17 batters faced over the last two days
Heriberto Hernández 2-2, 1 HR, 4 RBI · Javier Sanoja 2-3 · Xavier Edwards 2-3

Updates every minute while live. Every percentage on this page is a Statball prediction — our proprietary models price far more than the box score: team strength, starting pitchers, injuries, bullpen workload, lineups, and the live game state. Market price is the live Kalshi mid where an open market exists. Pregame picks and the season ledger live on Today’s Picks.