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New York Mets
1
0% — our call
Final
Miami Marlins
2
100% — our call
New York Metsgame flow — win probabilityMiami Marlins
100500startB1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8now
Statball’s live prediction, not a league stat. Dark fill: Marlins in control. Red fill: Mets. The dot is right now — runners and outs included.

Runs by inning

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Mets · 3 H, 0 EMarlins · 5 H, 0 E
100%
Marlins win — Statball prediction
Kalshi price of “Marlins win” — pays $1 if they do
our live number minus theirs
pregame pick

Latest plays

top 9Bo Bichette flies out to center fielder Jakob Marsee.
top 9Carson Benge walks.
top 9MJ Melendez strikes out swinging.
top 9Nick Morabito strikes out swinging.
bot 8Otto Lopez grounds out, shortstop Vidal Bruján to first baseman Mark Vientos.
bot 8Liam Hicks flies out to center fielder Tyrone Taylor.
bot 8Xavier Edwards strikes out swinging.
top 8A.J. Ewing caught stealing 2nd base, catcher Joe Mack to second baseman Xavier Edwards.

Context the model prices

New York Mets
9 on the injured list (2 stars) · bullpen threw 30 batters faced over the last two days
Juan Soto 2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI · A.J. Ewing 1-3 · Luis Torrens 0-2
Miami Marlins
4 on the injured list · bullpen threw 27 batters faced over the last two days
Esteury Ruiz 2-3 · Javier Sanoja 1-3 · Owen Caissie 1-2, 2 RBI

Updates every minute while live. Every percentage on this page is a Statball prediction — our proprietary models price far more than the box score: team strength, starting pitchers, injuries, bullpen workload, lineups, and the live game state. Market price is the live Kalshi mid where an open market exists. Pregame picks and the season ledger live on Today’s Picks.