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San Diego Padres
19
100% — our call
Final
Kansas City Royals
2
0% — our call
San Diego Padresgame flow — win probabilityKansas City Royals
100500startB1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B9now
Statball’s live prediction, not a league stat. Dark fill: Royals in control. Red fill: Padres. The dot is right now — runners and outs included.

Runs by inning

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Padres · 19 H, 1 ERoyals · 8 H, 1 E
0%
Royals win — Statball prediction
Kalshi price of “Royals win” — pays $1 if they do
our live number minus theirs
pregame pick

Latest plays

bot 9Michael Massey grounds out, first baseman Miguel Andujar to pitcher Wandy Peralta.
bot 9Luke Maile pops out to second baseman Luis Rengifo.
bot 9Tyler Tolbert lines out to right fielder Jase Bowen.
top 9Freddy Fermin grounds out, shortstop Nick Loftin to first baseman Salvador Perez.
top 9Sung-Mun Song singles on a line drive to right fielder Jac Caglianone. Miguel Andujar scores. Luis Rengifo scores. Jase Bowen to 2nd.192
top 9Jase Bowen hit by pitch. Gavin Sheets scores. Miguel Andujar to 3rd. Luis Rengifo to 2nd.172
top 9Luis Rengifo singles on a ground ball to left fielder Isaac Collins. Gavin Sheets to 3rd. Miguel Andujar to 2nd.
top 9Miguel Andujar walks. Gavin Sheets to 2nd.

Context the model prices

San Diego Padres
0 on the injured list · bullpen threw 0 batters faced over the last two days
Jackson Merrill 4-6, 2 HR, 4 RBI · Ty France 2-6, 2 HR, 5 RBI · Fernando Tatis Jr. 2-5, 1 HR, 4 RBI
Kansas City Royals
0 on the injured list · bullpen threw 0 batters faced over the last two days
Jac Caglianone 2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI · Josh Rojas 2-4 · Carter Jensen 1-4

Updates every minute while live. Every percentage on this page is a Statball prediction — our proprietary models price far more than the box score: team strength, starting pitchers, injuries, bullpen workload, lineups, and the live game state. Market price is the live Kalshi mid where an open market exists. Pregame picks and the season ledger live on Today’s Picks.