Statball

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Seattle Mariners
6
0% — our call
Final
Kansas City Royals
8
100% — our call
Seattle Marinersgame flow — win probabilityKansas City Royals
100500startB1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8now
Statball’s live prediction, not a league stat. Dark fill: Royals in control. Red fill: Mariners. The dot is right now — runners and outs included.

Runs by inning

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Mariners · 12 H, 3 ERoyals · 11 H, 0 E
100%
Royals win — Statball prediction
Kalshi price of “Royals win” — pays $1 if they do
our live number minus theirs
pregame pick

Latest plays

top 9Randy Arozarena doubles (14) on a ground ball to left fielder Isaac Collins. Josh Naylor scores.68
top 9Josh Naylor singles on a sharp line drive to center fielder Kyle Isbel. Julio Rodríguez scores.58
top 9Julio Rodríguez singles on a fly ball to right fielder Tyler Tolbert. Colt Emerson scores.48
top 9J.P. Crawford grounds out, shortstop Bobby Witt Jr. to first baseman Vinnie Pasquantino. Colt Emerson to 3rd.
top 9Colt Emerson doubles (3) on a line drive to left fielder Isaac Collins.
top 9Mitch Garver strikes out swinging.
bot 8Vinnie Pasquantino pops out to third baseman Colt Emerson in foul territory.
bot 8Bobby Witt Jr. doubles (14) on a sharp line drive to right fielder Luke Raley. Maikel Garcia to 3rd.

Context the model prices

Seattle Mariners
6 on the injured list (1 star) · bullpen threw 20 batters faced over the last two days
Colt Emerson 4-4, 1 RBI · Julio Rodríguez 2-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI · Josh Naylor 1-4, 1 RBI
Kansas City Royals
3 on the injured list (1 star) · bullpen threw 11 batters faced over the last two days
Salvador Perez 3-4, 3 RBI · Isaac Collins 2-3 · Maikel Garcia 2-5, 2 RBI

Updates every minute while live. Every percentage on this page is a Statball prediction — our proprietary models price far more than the box score: team strength, starting pitchers, injuries, bullpen workload, lineups, and the live game state. Market price is the live Kalshi mid where an open market exists. Pregame picks and the season ledger live on Today’s Picks.