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Pittsburgh Pirates
9
0% — our call
Final
Houston Astros
11
100% — our call
Pittsburgh Piratesgame flow — win probabilityHouston Astros
100500startB1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8now
Statball’s live prediction, not a league stat. Dark fill: Astros in control. Red fill: Pirates. The dot is right now — runners and outs included.

Runs by inning

12345678941312126
Pirates · 12 H, 3 EAstros · 13 H, 0 E
100%
Astros win — Statball prediction
Kalshi price of “Astros win” — pays $1 if they do
our live number minus theirs
pregame pick

Latest plays

top 9Endy Rodríguez grounds out, shortstop Jeremy Peña to first baseman Christian Walker.
top 9Jared Triolo walks.
top 9Jhostynxon Garcia strikes out swinging.
top 9Ryan O'Hearn grounds out, first baseman Christian Walker to pitcher Josh Hader.
bot 8Brice Matthews strikes out swinging.
bot 8Jake Meyers walks.
bot 8Cam Smith triples (1) on a sharp ground ball to right fielder Jake Mangum. Christian Walker scores. Isaac Paredes scores.911
bot 8Isaac Paredes walks. Zach Cole scores. Christian Walker to 2nd. Wild pitch by pitcher Gregory Soto.99

Context the model prices

Pittsburgh Pirates
2 on the injured list · bullpen threw 37 batters faced over the last two days
Nick Gonzales 2-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI · Spencer Horwitz 3-5 · Henry Davis 1-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
Houston Astros
11 on the injured list (2 stars) · bullpen threw 45 batters faced over the last two days
Isaac Paredes 2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI · Yordan Alvarez 4-5, 2 RBI · Cam Smith 2-5, 3 RBI

Updates every minute while live. Every percentage on this page is a Statball prediction — our proprietary models price far more than the box score: team strength, starting pitchers, injuries, bullpen workload, lineups, and the live game state. Market price is the live Kalshi mid where an open market exists. Pregame picks and the season ledger live on Today’s Picks.