Statball

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Seattle Mariners
3
0% — our call
Final
Houston Astros
4
100% — our call
Seattle Marinersgame flow — win probabilityHouston Astros
100500startB1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B9B10now
Statball’s live prediction, not a league stat. Dark fill: Astros in control. Red fill: Mariners. The dot is right now — runners and outs included.

Runs by inning

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Mariners · 8 H, 1 EAstros · 12 H, 1 E
100%
Astros win — Statball prediction
Kalshi price of “Astros win” — pays $1 if they do
our live number minus theirs
pregame pick

Latest plays

bot 10Zach Cole singles on a ground ball to right fielder Connor Joe. Brice Matthews scores.34
top 10Rob Refsnyder flies out to left fielder Zach Cole.
top 10Connor Joe grounds into a force out, fielded by third baseman Isaac Paredes. Josh Naylor out at 3rd. Brendan Donovan to 3rd. Connor Joe to 1st. Throwing error by third baseman Isaac Paredes.
top 10Randy Arozarena strikes out swinging.
top 10Brendan Donovan walks.
bot 9Brice Matthews strikes out swinging.
bot 9Braden Shewmake strikes out on a foul tip. Cam Smith steals (6) 2nd base.
bot 9Cam Smith singles on a line drive to right fielder Connor Joe.

Context the model prices

Seattle Mariners
8 on the injured list (2 stars) · bullpen threw 30 batters faced over the last two days
J.P. Crawford 2-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI · Luke Raley 2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI · Randy Arozarena 2-5
Houston Astros
14 on the injured list (3 stars) · bullpen threw 43 batters faced over the last two days
Zach Cole 3-4, 1 RBI · Christian Walker 1-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI · Braden Shewmake 2-5

Updates every minute while live. Every percentage on this page is a Statball prediction — our proprietary models price far more than the box score: team strength, starting pitchers, injuries, bullpen workload, lineups, and the live game state. Market price is the live Kalshi mid where an open market exists. Pregame picks and the season ledger live on Today’s Picks.