Statball

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Seattle Mariners
8
100% — our call
Final
Houston Astros
3
0% — our call
Seattle Marinersgame flow — win probabilityHouston Astros
100500startB1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B9now
Statball’s live prediction, not a league stat. Dark fill: Astros in control. Red fill: Mariners. The dot is right now — runners and outs included.

Runs by inning

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Mariners · 11 H, 0 EAstros · 5 H, 0 E
0%
Astros win — Statball prediction
Kalshi price of “Astros win” — pays $1 if they do
our live number minus theirs
pregame pick

Latest plays

bot 9Zach Cole called out on strikes.
bot 9César Salazar walks.
bot 9Cam Smith grounds out, third baseman Brendan Donovan to first baseman Josh Naylor.
bot 9Brice Matthews grounds out, third baseman Brendan Donovan to first baseman Josh Naylor.
top 9Luke Raley lines out sharply to right fielder Cam Smith. Josh Naylor to 3rd.
top 9Randy Arozarena walks.
top 9Josh Naylor doubles (5) on a line drive to left fielder Zach Cole.
top 9Julio Rodríguez pops out to first baseman Christian Walker.

Context the model prices

Seattle Mariners
8 on the injured list (2 stars) · bullpen threw 30 batters faced over the last two days
Luke Raley 2-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI · Brendan Donovan 3-5 · Mitch Garver 1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
Houston Astros
14 on the injured list (3 stars) · bullpen threw 43 batters faced over the last two days
Yordan Alvarez 3-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI · Braden Shewmake 2-4, 2 RBI · Isaac Paredes 0-3

Updates every minute while live. Every percentage on this page is a Statball prediction — our proprietary models price far more than the box score: team strength, starting pitchers, injuries, bullpen workload, lineups, and the live game state. Market price is the live Kalshi mid where an open market exists. Pregame picks and the season ledger live on Today’s Picks.