Statball

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Seattle Mariners
10
100% — our call
Final
Houston Astros
2
0% — our call
Seattle Marinersgame flow — win probabilityHouston Astros
100500startB1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B9now
Statball’s live prediction, not a league stat. Dark fill: Astros in control. Red fill: Mariners. The dot is right now — runners and outs included.

Runs by inning

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Mariners · 11 H, 0 EAstros · 5 H, 0 E
0%
Astros win — Statball prediction
Kalshi price of “Astros win” — pays $1 if they do
our live number minus theirs
pregame pick

Latest plays

bot 9Brice Matthews flies out to center fielder Julio Rodríguez.
bot 9Braden Shewmake singles on a sharp line drive to center fielder Julio Rodríguez. Zach Dezenzo to 3rd.
bot 9Cam Smith strikes out swinging.
bot 9Shay Whitcomb flies out to second baseman Cole Young.
top 9Cole Young grounds out, second baseman Jose Altuve to first baseman Christian Walker.
top 9Dominic Canzone out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder Cam Smith. Randy Arozarena scores. Luke Raley to 3rd.102
top 9J.P. Crawford walks. Cal Raleigh scores. Randy Arozarena to 3rd. Luke Raley to 2nd.92
top 9Luke Raley walks. Cal Raleigh to 3rd. Randy Arozarena to 2nd.

Context the model prices

Seattle Mariners
7 on the injured list (2 stars) · bullpen threw 26 batters faced over the last two days
Randy Arozarena 4-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI · Dominic Canzone 1-4, 1 HR, 5 RBI · Cal Raleigh 2-4
Houston Astros
14 on the injured list (3 stars) · bullpen threw 31 batters faced over the last two days
Braden Shewmake 2-4, 1 RBI · Jose Altuve 1-3 · Zach Dezenzo 1-3

Updates every minute while live. Every percentage on this page is a Statball prediction — our proprietary models price far more than the box score: team strength, starting pitchers, injuries, bullpen workload, lineups, and the live game state. Market price is the live Kalshi mid where an open market exists. Pregame picks and the season ledger live on Today’s Picks.