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Boston Red Sox
4
0% — our call
Final
Houston Astros
6
100% — our call
Boston Red Soxgame flow — win probabilityHouston Astros
100500startB1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8now
Statball’s live prediction, not a league stat. Dark fill: Astros in control. Red fill: Sox. The dot is right now — runners and outs included.

Runs by inning

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Sox · 7 H, 2 EAstros · 8 H, 0 E
100%
Astros win — Statball prediction
Kalshi price of “Astros win” — pays $1 if they do
our live number minus theirs
pregame pick

Latest plays

top 9Trevor Story strikes out swinging.
top 9Jarren Duran strikes out swinging.
top 9Marcelo Mayer strikes out swinging.
top 9Roman Anthony homers (1) on a line drive to left center field.46
bot 8Christian Vázquez called out on strikes.
bot 8Joey Loperfido walks. Jake Meyers to 2nd.
bot 8Jake Meyers walks.
bot 8Cam Smith singles on a line drive to right fielder Wilyer Abreu.

Context the model prices

Boston Red Sox
3 on the injured list · bullpen threw 33 batters faced over the last two days
Wilyer Abreu 2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI · Roman Anthony 1-1, 1 HR, 1 RBI · Connor Wong 2-3
Houston Astros
8 on the injured list (2 stars) · bullpen threw 20 batters faced over the last two days
Carlos Correa 1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI · Christian Vázquez 1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI · Yordan Alvarez 2-3

Updates every minute while live. Every percentage on this page is a Statball prediction — our proprietary models price far more than the box score: team strength, starting pitchers, injuries, bullpen workload, lineups, and the live game state. Market price is the live Kalshi mid where an open market exists. Pregame picks and the season ledger live on Today’s Picks.