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Pittsburgh Pirates
3
0% — our call
Final
Cleveland Guardians
5
100% — our call
Pittsburgh Piratesgame flow — win probabilityCleveland Guardians
100500startB1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B9now
Statball’s live prediction, not a league stat. Dark fill: Guardians in control. Red fill: Pirates. The dot is right now — runners and outs included.

Runs by inning

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Pirates · 6 H, 0 EGuardians · 11 H, 1 E
100%
Guardians win — Statball prediction
Kalshi price of “Guardians win” — pays $1 if they do
our live number minus theirs
pregame pick

Latest plays

bot 9Travis Bazzana homers (8) on a fly ball to center field. Steven Kwan scores.35
bot 9Steven Kwan doubles (11) on a line drive to left fielder Bryan Reynolds. Patrick Bailey out at home on the throw, left fielder Bryan Reynolds to third baseman Nick Gonzales to catcher Rafael Flores Jr.
bot 9Patrick Bailey singles on a ground ball to right fielder Esmerlyn Valdez.
top 9Jake Mangum grounds out, second baseman Travis Bazzana to first baseman Kyle Manzardo.
top 9Jacob Gonzalez strikes out swinging.
top 9Rafael Flores Jr. strikes out swinging.
bot 8Gabriel Arias strikes out swinging.
bot 8Kyle Manzardo strikes out swinging.

Context the model prices

Pittsburgh Pirates
0 on the injured list · bullpen threw 0 batters faced over the last two days
Bryan Reynolds 1-3 · Jared Triolo 1-3 · Esmerlyn Valdez 1-4, 1 RBI
Cleveland Guardians
0 on the injured list · bullpen threw 0 batters faced over the last two days
Travis Bazzana 2-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI · Steven Kwan 3-4 · Kahlil Watson 1-2, 1 RBI

Updates every minute while live. Every percentage on this page is a Statball prediction — our proprietary models price far more than the box score: team strength, starting pitchers, injuries, bullpen workload, lineups, and the live game state. Market price is the live Kalshi mid where an open market exists. Pregame picks and the season ledger live on Today’s Picks.