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Boston Red Sox
3
0% — our call
Final
Cleveland Guardians
4
100% — our call
Boston Red Soxgame flow — win probabilityCleveland Guardians
100500startB1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8now
Statball’s live prediction, not a league stat. Dark fill: Guardians in control. Red fill: Sox. The dot is right now — runners and outs included.

Runs by inning

12345678934
Sox · 11 H, 1 EGuardians · 10 H, 1 E
100%
Guardians win — Statball prediction
Kalshi price of “Guardians win” — pays $1 if they do
our live number minus theirs
pregame pick

Latest plays

top 9Jarren Duran strikes out swinging.
top 9Marcelo Mayer strikes out swinging.
top 9Isiah Kiner-Falefa singles on a line drive to center fielder Daniel Schneemann.
bot 8Angel Martínez flies out to center fielder Ceddanne Rafaela.
bot 8Kyle Manzardo strikes out swinging.
bot 8Rhys Hoskins flies out to right fielder Wilyer Abreu.
top 8Mickey Gasper grounds out to first baseman Kyle Manzardo.
top 8Masataka Yoshida singles on a line drive to right fielder Chase DeLauter. Nick Sogard to 3rd.

Context the model prices

Boston Red Sox
9 on the injured list (2 stars) · bullpen threw 30 batters faced over the last two days
Willson Contreras 2-4 · Isiah Kiner-Falefa 2-4 · Mickey Gasper 2-4
Cleveland Guardians
1 on the injured list · bullpen threw 8 batters faced over the last two days
Chase DeLauter 2-4 · Kyle Manzardo 2-4 · Travis Bazzana 1-4

Updates every minute while live. Every percentage on this page is a Statball prediction — our proprietary models price far more than the box score: team strength, starting pitchers, injuries, bullpen workload, lineups, and the live game state. Market price is the live Kalshi mid where an open market exists. Pregame picks and the season ledger live on Today’s Picks.