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San Diego Padres
3
0% — our call
Final
Cincinnati Reds
7
100% — our call
San Diego Padresgame flow — win probabilityCincinnati Reds
100500startB1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8now
Statball’s live prediction, not a league stat. Dark fill: Reds in control. Red fill: Padres. The dot is right now — runners and outs included.

Runs by inning

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Padres · 7 H, 1 EReds · 10 H, 0 E
100%
Reds win — Statball prediction
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Kalshi price of “Reds win” — pays $1 if they do
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our live number minus theirs
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pregame pick

Latest plays

top 9Jake Cronenworth strikes out swinging.
top 9Luis Campusano pops out to first baseman Sal Stewart.
top 9Dustin Harris grounds out, second baseman Juan Brito to first baseman Sal Stewart.
bot 8Héctor Rodríguez flies out to left fielder Samad Taylor.
bot 8Edwin Arroyo reaches on a fielder's choice out, first baseman Ty France to catcher Ethan Salas to third baseman Jake Cronenworth. Dane Myers out at home. Matt McLain to 2nd.
bot 8Matt McLain reaches on a fielder's choice. Dane Myers to 3rd. Dane Myers advances to 3rd, on a missed catch error by second baseman Fernando Tatis Jr., assist to third baseman Jake Cronenworth.
bot 8Juan Brito strikes out swinging.
bot 8Dane Myers singles on a ground ball to center fielder Jackson Merrill.

Context the model prices

San Diego Padres
0 on the injured list · bullpen threw 0 batters faced over the last two days
Ty France 2-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI · Fernando Tatis Jr. 2-4, 1 RBI · Xander Bogaerts 2-3
Cincinnati Reds
0 on the injured list · bullpen threw 0 batters faced over the last two days
JJ Bleday 3-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI · Dane Myers 3-4 · Juan Brito 1-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI

Updates every minute while live. Every percentage on this page is a Statball prediction — our proprietary models price far more than the box score: team strength, starting pitchers, injuries, bullpen workload, lineups, and the live game state. Market price is the live Kalshi mid where an open market exists. Pregame picks and the season ledger live on Today’s Picks.