Statball

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San Diego Padres
3
0% — our call
Final
Cincinnati Reds
4
100% — our call
San Diego Padresgame flow — win probabilityCincinnati Reds
100500startB1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8now
Statball’s live prediction, not a league stat. Dark fill: Reds in control. Red fill: Padres. The dot is right now — runners and outs included.

Runs by inning

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Padres · 7 H, 0 EReds · 8 H, 1 E
100%
Reds win — Statball prediction
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Kalshi price of “Reds win” — pays $1 if they do
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our live number minus theirs
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pregame pick

Latest plays

top 9Samad Taylor strikes out swinging.
top 9Fernando Tatis Jr. homers (19) on a fly ball to right field.3–4
top 9Jake Cronenworth flies out to left fielder JJ Bleday.
top 9Sung-Mun Song flies out to center fielder Dane Myers.
bot 8Dane Myers flies out to right fielder Jase Bowen.
bot 8Juan Brito out on a sacrifice fly to left fielder Samad Taylor. Sal Stewart scores.2–4
bot 8Jose Trevino singles on a line drive to center fielder Jackson Merrill. Elly De La Cruz scores. Sal Stewart to 3rd. Matt McLain to 2nd.2–3
bot 8Adrian Morejon intentionally walks Matt McLain.

Context the model prices

San Diego Padres
0 on the injured list · bullpen threw 0 batters faced over the last two days
Fernando Tatis Jr. 2-5, 2 HR, 2 RBI · Jackson Merrill 2-4 · Samad Taylor 2-4
Cincinnati Reds
0 on the injured list · bullpen threw 0 batters faced over the last two days
Sal Stewart 2-4 · Héctor Rodríguez 2-4, 1 RBI · Elly De La Cruz 1-3

Updates every minute while live. Every percentage on this page is a Statball prediction — our proprietary models price far more than the box score: team strength, starting pitchers, injuries, bullpen workload, lineups, and the live game state. Market price is the live Kalshi mid where an open market exists. Pregame picks and the season ledger live on Today’s Picks.