Statball

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San Diego Padres
5
100% — our call
Final
Cincinnati Reds
0
0% — our call
San Diego Padresgame flow — win probabilityCincinnati Reds
100500startB1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B9now
Statball’s live prediction, not a league stat. Dark fill: Reds in control. Red fill: Padres. The dot is right now — runners and outs included.

Runs by inning

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Padres · 15 H, 0 EReds · 5 H, 1 E
0%
Reds win — Statball prediction
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Kalshi price of “Reds win” — pays $1 if they do
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our live number minus theirs
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pregame pick

Latest plays

bot 9Héctor Rodríguez pops out to shortstop Sung-Mun Song.
bot 9Edwin Arroyo strikes out swinging.
bot 9Dane Myers singles on a line drive to center fielder Jackson Merrill.
bot 9Matt McLain flies out to right fielder Fernando Tatis Jr.
top 9Dustin Harris called out on strikes.
top 9Xander Bogaerts strikes out swinging.
top 9Jackson Merrill hit by pitch. Manny Machado to 2nd.
top 9Ty France lines out to right fielder Héctor Rodríguez.

Context the model prices

San Diego Padres
0 on the injured list · bullpen threw 0 batters faced over the last two days
Manny Machado 4-5 · Ty France 3-5, 1 RBI · Luis Campusano 2-4
Cincinnati Reds
0 on the injured list · bullpen threw 0 batters faced over the last two days
Dane Myers 1-1 · Sal Stewart 1-4 · Matt McLain 1-3

Updates every minute while live. Every percentage on this page is a Statball prediction — our proprietary models price far more than the box score: team strength, starting pitchers, injuries, bullpen workload, lineups, and the live game state. Market price is the live Kalshi mid where an open market exists. Pregame picks and the season ledger live on Today’s Picks.