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Pittsburgh Pirates
7
0% — our call
Final
Cincinnati Reds
8
100% — our call
Pittsburgh Piratesgame flow — win probabilityCincinnati Reds
100500startB1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8now
Statball’s live prediction, not a league stat. Dark fill: Reds in control. Red fill: Pirates. The dot is right now — runners and outs included.

Runs by inning

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Pirates · 12 H, 1 EReds · 12 H, 0 E
100%
Reds win — Statball prediction
Kalshi price of “Reds win” — pays $1 if they do
our live number minus theirs
pregame pick

Latest plays

top 9Nick Gonzales hit by pitch.
top 9Ryan O'Hearn grounds out, second baseman Matt McLain to first baseman Sal Stewart.
top 9Esmerlyn Valdez flies out to center fielder Dane Myers.
bot 8Ke'Bryan Hayes strikes out swinging.
bot 8Nathaniel Lowe reaches on a fielder's choice. Sal Stewart scores. Tyler Stephenson to 3rd. Nathaniel Lowe to 2nd. Missed catch error by second baseman Brandon Lowe, assist to third baseman Nick Gonzales.78
bot 8Mason Montgomery intentionally walks Tyler Stephenson.
bot 8JJ Bleday grounds out, shortstop Jared Triolo to first baseman Endy Rodríguez. Sal Stewart to 3rd.
bot 8Sal Stewart singles on a sharp line drive to center fielder Jake Mangum. Noelvi Marte scores. Matt McLain scores. Sal Stewart to 2nd.77

Context the model prices

Pittsburgh Pirates
0 on the injured list · bullpen threw 0 batters faced over the last two days
Jake Mangum 2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI · Brandon Lowe 3-5, 1 RBI · Bryan Reynolds 2-5
Cincinnati Reds
0 on the injured list · bullpen threw 0 batters faced over the last two days
Sal Stewart 2-5, 1 HR, 4 RBI · Noelvi Marte 3-4 · JJ Bleday 1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI

Updates every minute while live. Every percentage on this page is a Statball prediction — our proprietary models price far more than the box score: team strength, starting pitchers, injuries, bullpen workload, lineups, and the live game state. Market price is the live Kalshi mid where an open market exists. Pregame picks and the season ledger live on Today’s Picks.