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New York Mets
9
100% — our call
Final
Cincinnati Reds
1
0% — our call
New York Metsgame flow — win probabilityCincinnati Reds
100500startB1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B9now
Statball’s live prediction, not a league stat. Dark fill: Reds in control. Red fill: Mets. The dot is right now — runners and outs included.

Runs by inning

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Mets · 15 H, 2 EReds · 5 H, 1 E
0%
Reds win — Statball prediction
Kalshi price of “Reds win” — pays $1 if they do
our live number minus theirs
pregame pick

Latest plays

bot 9Edwin Arroyo grounds out, shortstop Zack Short to first baseman Mark Vientos.
bot 9Matt McLain walks.
bot 9Jose Trevino grounds out, pitcher Austin Warren to first baseman Mark Vientos.
bot 9Noelvi Marte doubles (2) on a ground ball to right fielder Carson Benge.
bot 9Spencer Steer pops out to second baseman Brett Baty.
top 9Luis Torrens grounds out, shortstop Matt McLain to first baseman Spencer Steer.
top 9A.J. Ewing grounds out, third baseman Sal Stewart to first baseman Spencer Steer.
top 9Francisco Alvarez grounds out, shortstop Matt McLain to first baseman Spencer Steer.

Context the model prices

New York Mets
9 on the injured list (1 star) · bullpen threw 44 batters faced over the last two days
Bo Bichette 3-4, 1 RBI · Francisco Alvarez 3-5, 1 RBI · Juan Soto 3-5, 2 RBI
Cincinnati Reds
7 on the injured list · bullpen threw 36 batters faced over the last two days
Sal Stewart 1-4 · Noelvi Marte 1-4 · Nathaniel Lowe 1-3

Updates every minute while live. Every percentage on this page is a Statball prediction — our proprietary models price far more than the box score: team strength, starting pitchers, injuries, bullpen workload, lineups, and the live game state. Market price is the live Kalshi mid where an open market exists. Pregame picks and the season ledger live on Today’s Picks.