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New York Mets
3
0% — our call
Final
Cincinnati Reds
5
100% — our call
New York Metsgame flow — win probabilityCincinnati Reds
100500startB1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8now
Statball’s live prediction, not a league stat. Dark fill: Reds in control. Red fill: Mets. The dot is right now — runners and outs included.

Runs by inning

1234567891241
Mets · 7 H, 0 EReds · 6 H, 1 E
100%
Reds win — Statball prediction
Kalshi price of “Reds win” — pays $1 if they do
our live number minus theirs
pregame pick

Latest plays

top 9A.J. Ewing grounds out, shortstop Matt McLain to first baseman Sal Stewart.
top 9Eric Wagaman strikes out swinging.
top 9Juan Soto singles on a ground ball to pitcher Tony Santillan.
top 9Bo Bichette strikes out swinging.
bot 8Spencer Steer strikes out swinging.
bot 8Eugenio Suárez strikes out on a foul tip.
bot 8Dane Myers called out on strikes.
top 8Carson Benge grounds out, second baseman Edwin Arroyo to first baseman Sal Stewart.

Context the model prices

New York Mets
9 on the injured list (1 star) · bullpen threw 42 batters faced over the last two days
Mark Vientos 1-2, 1 HR, 2 RBI · Bo Bichette 2-5, 1 RBI · Francisco Alvarez 1-2
Cincinnati Reds
7 on the injured list · bullpen threw 35 batters faced over the last two days
Sal Stewart 2-3, 1 HR, 4 RBI · Spencer Steer 1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI · Blake Dunn 1-3

Updates every minute while live. Every percentage on this page is a Statball prediction — our proprietary models price far more than the box score: team strength, starting pitchers, injuries, bullpen workload, lineups, and the live game state. Market price is the live Kalshi mid where an open market exists. Pregame picks and the season ledger live on Today’s Picks.