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Pittsburgh Pirates
8
100% — our call
Final
Cincinnati Reds
3
0% — our call
Pittsburgh Piratesgame flow — win probabilityCincinnati Reds
100500startB1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B9now
Statball’s live prediction, not a league stat. Dark fill: Reds in control. Red fill: Pirates. The dot is right now — runners and outs included.

Runs by inning

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Pirates · 8 H, 1 EReds · 6 H, 0 E
0%
Reds win — Statball prediction
Kalshi price of “Reds win” — pays $1 if they do
our live number minus theirs
pregame pick

Latest plays

bot 9Eugenio Suárez called out on strikes.
bot 9Sal Stewart walks.
bot 9Elly De La Cruz grounds into a force out, shortstop Nick Gonzales to third baseman Nick Yorke. TJ Friedl out at 3rd. Matt McLain to 2nd. Elly De La Cruz to 1st.
bot 9Matt McLain hit by pitch. TJ Friedl to 2nd.
bot 9TJ Friedl grounds into a force out, shortstop Nick Gonzales to second baseman Brandon Lowe. Ke'Bryan Hayes out at 2nd. TJ Friedl to 1st.
bot 9Ke'Bryan Hayes singles on a line drive to right fielder Jake Mangum.
top 9Jake Mangum grounds out, third baseman Ke'Bryan Hayes to first baseman Sal Stewart.
top 9Nick Yorke grounds out, second baseman Matt McLain to first baseman Sal Stewart.

Context the model prices

Pittsburgh Pirates
0 on the injured list · bullpen threw 27 batters faced over the last two days
Oneil Cruz 3-4, 2 HR, 3 RBI · Bryan Reynolds 1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI · Ryan O'Hearn 1-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
Cincinnati Reds
3 on the injured list (1 star) · bullpen threw 34 batters faced over the last two days
Elly De La Cruz 1-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI · Sal Stewart 1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI · Dane Myers 1-2

Updates every minute while live. Every percentage on this page is a Statball prediction — our proprietary models price far more than the box score: team strength, starting pitchers, injuries, bullpen workload, lineups, and the live game state. Market price is the live Kalshi mid where an open market exists. Pregame picks and the season ledger live on Today’s Picks.