Statball

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Pittsburgh Pirates
3
0% — our call
Final
Chicago Cubs
4
100% — our call
Pittsburgh Piratesgame flow — win probabilityChicago Cubs
100500startB1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8now
Statball’s live prediction, not a league stat. Dark fill: Cubs in control. Red fill: Pirates. The dot is right now — runners and outs included.

Runs by inning

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Pirates · 6 H, 0 ECubs · 5 H, 1 E
100%
Cubs win — Statball prediction
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Kalshi price of “Cubs win” — pays $1 if they do
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our live number minus theirs
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pregame pick

Latest plays

top 9Brandon Lowe flies out to right fielder Matt Shaw.
top 9Oneil Cruz lines out to left fielder Tyrone Taylor.
top 9Rafael Flores Jr. singles on a ground ball to third baseman Alex Bregman.
bot 8Michael Conforto strikes out swinging.
bot 8Nico Hoerner hit by pitch. Alex Bregman scores. Seiya Suzuki to 3rd. Matt Shaw to 2nd.3–4
bot 8Matt Shaw walks. Pedro Ramírez scores. Alex Bregman to 3rd. Seiya Suzuki to 2nd.3–3
bot 8Seiya Suzuki walks. Pedro Ramírez to 3rd. Alex Bregman to 2nd.
bot 8Alex Bregman hit by pitch.

Context the model prices

Pittsburgh Pirates
0 on the injured list · bullpen threw 0 batters faced over the last two days
Ryan O'Hearn 1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI · Jacob Gonzalez 1-2 · Spencer Horwitz 1-3
Chicago Cubs
0 on the injured list · bullpen threw 0 batters faced over the last two days
Pedro Ramírez 2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI · Michael Busch 1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI · Alex Bregman 1-2

Updates every minute while live. Every percentage on this page is a Statball prediction — our proprietary models price far more than the box score: team strength, starting pitchers, injuries, bullpen workload, lineups, and the live game state. Market price is the live Kalshi mid where an open market exists. Pregame picks and the season ledger live on Today’s Picks.