Statball

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San Diego Padres
3
0% — our call
Final
Chicago Cubs
23
100% — our call
San Diego Padresgame flow — win probabilityChicago Cubs
100500startB1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8now
Statball’s live prediction, not a league stat. Dark fill: Cubs in control. Red fill: Padres. The dot is right now — runners and outs included.

Runs by inning

12345678921315428
Padres · 11 H, 1 ECubs · 17 H, 0 E
100%
Cubs win — Statball prediction
Kalshi price of “Cubs win” — pays $1 if they do
our live number minus theirs
pregame pick

Latest plays

top 9Samad Taylor grounds out, shortstop Dansby Swanson to first baseman Michael Busch.
top 9Ty France singles on a sharp line drive to left fielder Kevin Alcántara. Gavin Sheets to 3rd.
top 9Freddy Fermin grounds out, third baseman Alex Bregman to first baseman Michael Busch.
top 9Gavin Sheets doubles (14) on a line drive to left fielder Kevin Alcántara.
top 9Jase Bowen grounds out, third baseman Alex Bregman to first baseman Michael Busch.
bot 8Seiya Suzuki flies out to center fielder Jase Bowen.
bot 8Michael Busch homers (11) on a fly ball to right center field.323
bot 8Alex Bregman flies out to center fielder Jase Bowen.

Context the model prices

San Diego Padres
9 on the injured list (1 star) · bullpen threw 37 batters faced over the last two days
Sung-Mun Song 2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI · Jake Cronenworth 3-4 · Ty France 2-4, 1 RBI
Chicago Cubs
15 on the injured list (4 stars) · bullpen threw 29 batters faced over the last two days
Dansby Swanson 3-5, 3 HR, 8 RBI · Michael Conforto 3-4, 2 HR, 4 RBI · Seiya Suzuki 3-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI

Updates every minute while live. Every percentage on this page is a Statball prediction — our proprietary models price far more than the box score: team strength, starting pitchers, injuries, bullpen workload, lineups, and the live game state. Market price is the live Kalshi mid where an open market exists. Pregame picks and the season ledger live on Today’s Picks.