Statball

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San Diego Padres
7
0% — our call
Final
Chicago Cubs
9
100% — our call
San Diego Padresgame flow — win probabilityChicago Cubs
100500startB1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8now
Statball’s live prediction, not a league stat. Dark fill: Cubs in control. Red fill: Padres. The dot is right now — runners and outs included.

Runs by inning

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Padres · 13 H, 1 ECubs · 13 H, 0 E
100%
Cubs win — Statball prediction
Kalshi price of “Cubs win” — pays $1 if they do
our live number minus theirs
pregame pick

Latest plays

top 9Jackson Merrill flies out to left fielder Ian Happ.
top 9Ty France flies out to left fielder Ian Happ.
top 9Jake Cronenworth flies out to left fielder Ian Happ.
bot 8Carson Kelly caught stealing 2nd base, catcher Freddy Fermin to second baseman Fernando Tatis Jr.
bot 8Nico Hoerner flies out to right fielder Samad Taylor. Seiya Suzuki to 3rd.
bot 8Michael Busch pops out to third baseman Manny Machado.
bot 8Seiya Suzuki singles on a ground ball to center fielder Jackson Merrill, deflected by second baseman Fernando Tatis Jr.
top 8Manny Machado strikes out swinging.

Context the model prices

San Diego Padres
9 on the injured list (1 star) · bullpen threw 37 batters faced over the last two days
Fernando Tatis Jr. 2-5, 2 HR, 2 RBI · Manny Machado 2-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI · Gavin Sheets 1-2, 1 HR, 3 RBI
Chicago Cubs
15 on the injured list (4 stars) · bullpen threw 29 batters faced over the last two days
Dansby Swanson 3-4, 2 HR, 3 RBI · Alex Bregman 1-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI · Michael Busch 1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI

Updates every minute while live. Every percentage on this page is a Statball prediction — our proprietary models price far more than the box score: team strength, starting pitchers, injuries, bullpen workload, lineups, and the live game state. Market price is the live Kalshi mid where an open market exists. Pregame picks and the season ledger live on Today’s Picks.