Statball

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Pittsburgh Pirates
4
100% — our call
Final
Chicago Cubs
3
0% — our call
Pittsburgh Piratesgame flow — win probabilityChicago Cubs
100500startB1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B9B10B11now
Statball’s live prediction, not a league stat. Dark fill: Cubs in control. Red fill: Pirates. The dot is right now — runners and outs included.

Runs by inning

1234567891011121111
Pirates · 11 H, 1 ECubs · 9 H, 3 E
0%
Cubs win — Statball prediction
Kalshi price of “Cubs win” — pays $1 if they do
our live number minus theirs
pregame pick

Latest plays

bot 11Seiya Suzuki pops out to first baseman Ryan O'Hearn in foul territory.
bot 11Yohan Ramírez intentionally walks Ian Happ.
bot 11Alex Bregman pops out to first baseman Ryan O'Hearn in foul territory.
bot 11Matt Shaw lines out to right fielder Nick Yorke.
bot 11Nico Hoerner reaches on a throwing error by pitcher Yohan Ramírez. Dansby Swanson to 3rd. Nico Hoerner to 2nd.
top 11Jake Mangum strikes out swinging.
top 11Brandon Lowe reaches on a throwing error by pitcher Caleb Thielbar. Nick Gonzales scores. Oneil Cruz to 3rd.43
top 11Caleb Thielbar intentionally walks Oneil Cruz.

Context the model prices

Pittsburgh Pirates
1 on the injured list · bullpen threw 15 batters faced over the last two days
Oneil Cruz 4-5 · Nick Yorke 3-4 · Bryan Reynolds 2-5, 1 RBI
Chicago Cubs
8 on the injured list (2 stars) · bullpen threw 12 batters faced over the last two days
Alex Bregman 2-6, 1 RBI · Moisés Ballesteros 2-2 · Michael Conforto 1-3

Updates every minute while live. Every percentage on this page is a Statball prediction — our proprietary models price far more than the box score: team strength, starting pitchers, injuries, bullpen workload, lineups, and the live game state. Market price is the live Kalshi mid where an open market exists. Pregame picks and the season ledger live on Today’s Picks.