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San Diego Padres
8
100% — our call
Final
Boston Red Sox
6
0% — our call
San Diego Padresgame flow — win probabilityBoston Red Sox
100500startB1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B9now
Statball’s live prediction, not a league stat. Dark fill: Sox in control. Red fill: Padres. The dot is right now — runners and outs included.

Runs by inning

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Padres · 12 H, 0 ESox · 9 H, 2 E
0%
Sox win — Statball prediction
Kalshi price of “Sox win” — pays $1 if they do
our live number minus theirs
pregame pick

Latest plays

bot 9Willson Contreras strikes out swinging.
bot 9Jarren Duran strikes out swinging, catcher Freddy Fermin to first baseman Ty France.
bot 9Trevor Story strikes out swinging.
top 9Jackson Merrill lines out to left fielder Jarren Duran.
top 9Fernando Tatis Jr. out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder Wilyer Abreu. Gavin Sheets scores.86
top 9Ramón Laureano grounds out softly, pitcher Zack Kelly to first baseman Willson Contreras. Gavin Sheets to 3rd.
top 9Gavin Sheets doubles (3) on a sharp line drive to center fielder Ceddanne Rafaela.
bot 8Roman Anthony grounds out, third baseman Manny Machado to first baseman Ty France.

Context the model prices

San Diego Padres
8 on the injured list (1 star) · bullpen threw 20 batters faced over the last two days
Jackson Merrill 3-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI · Manny Machado 2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI · Xander Bogaerts 3-3
Boston Red Sox
4 on the injured list · bullpen threw 30 batters faced over the last two days
Wilyer Abreu 3-4, 1 RBI · Masataka Yoshida 3-4, 3 RBI · Trevor Story 1-5

Updates every minute while live. Every percentage on this page is a Statball prediction — our proprietary models price far more than the box score: team strength, starting pitchers, injuries, bullpen workload, lineups, and the live game state. Market price is the live Kalshi mid where an open market exists. Pregame picks and the season ledger live on Today’s Picks.