Statball

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San Diego Padres
2
0% — our call
Final
Boston Red Sox
5
100% — our call
San Diego Padresgame flow — win probabilityBoston Red Sox
100500startB1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8now
Statball’s live prediction, not a league stat. Dark fill: Sox in control. Red fill: Padres. The dot is right now — runners and outs included.

Runs by inning

1234567892113
Padres · 4 H, 1 ESox · 9 H, 0 E
100%
Sox win — Statball prediction
Kalshi price of “Sox win” — pays $1 if they do
our live number minus theirs
pregame pick

Latest plays

top 9Ramón Laureano flies out to right fielder Wilyer Abreu.
top 9Manny Machado walks.
top 9Jackson Merrill called out on strikes.
top 9Xander Bogaerts flies out to right fielder Wilyer Abreu.
bot 8Caleb Durbin pops out to first baseman Gavin Sheets.
bot 8Wilyer Abreu strikes out swinging.
bot 8Willson Contreras grounds out, third baseman Manny Machado to first baseman Gavin Sheets.
top 8Fernando Tatis Jr. grounds out, third baseman Caleb Durbin to first baseman Willson Contreras.

Context the model prices

San Diego Padres
8 on the injured list (1 star) · bullpen threw 16 batters faced over the last two days
Gavin Sheets 2-3, 1 RBI · Luis Campusano 1-2, 1 RBI · Miguel Andujar 1-3
Boston Red Sox
4 on the injured list · bullpen threw 13 batters faced over the last two days
Marcelo Mayer 2-2, 1 HR, 2 RBI · Willson Contreras 1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI · Roman Anthony 1-4

Updates every minute while live. Every percentage on this page is a Statball prediction — our proprietary models price far more than the box score: team strength, starting pitchers, injuries, bullpen workload, lineups, and the live game state. Market price is the live Kalshi mid where an open market exists. Pregame picks and the season ledger live on Today’s Picks.