Statball

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San Diego Padres
3
0% — our call
Final
Baltimore Orioles
7
100% — our call
San Diego Padresgame flow — win probabilityBaltimore Orioles
100500startB1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8now
Statball’s live prediction, not a league stat. Dark fill: Orioles in control. Red fill: Padres. The dot is right now — runners and outs included.

Runs by inning

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Padres · 7 H, 0 EOrioles · 8 H, 1 E
100%
Orioles win — Statball prediction
Kalshi price of “Orioles win” — pays $1 if they do
our live number minus theirs
pregame pick

Latest plays

top 9Jackson Merrill lines out sharply to right fielder Tyler O'Neill.
top 9Fernando Tatis Jr. grounds out, shortstop Gunnar Henderson to first baseman Pete Alonso.
top 9Freddy Fermin grounds out, pitcher Andrew Kittredge to first baseman Pete Alonso.
bot 8Taylor Ward grounds out, shortstop Xander Bogaerts to first baseman Ty France.
bot 8Jackson Holliday strikes out swinging.
bot 8Tyler O'Neill singles on a sharp line drive to center fielder Jackson Merrill. Colton Cowser to 2nd.
bot 8Colton Cowser hit by pitch.
top 8Will Wagner strikes out swinging.

Context the model prices

San Diego Padres
9 on the injured list (1 star) · bullpen threw 10 batters faced over the last two days
Manny Machado 2-4 · Gavin Sheets 2-4, 2 RBI · Fernando Tatis Jr. 1-5, 1 RBI
Baltimore Orioles
9 on the injured list (1 star) · bullpen threw 28 batters faced over the last two days
Gunnar Henderson 3-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI · Samuel Basallo 1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI · Tyler O'Neill 2-4

Updates every minute while live. Every percentage on this page is a Statball prediction — our proprietary models price far more than the box score: team strength, starting pitchers, injuries, bullpen workload, lineups, and the live game state. Market price is the live Kalshi mid where an open market exists. Pregame picks and the season ledger live on Today’s Picks.