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Tampa Bay Rays
2
0% — our call
Final
Baltimore Orioles
11
100% — our call
Tampa Bay Raysgame flow — win probabilityBaltimore Orioles
100500startB1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8now
Statball’s live prediction, not a league stat. Dark fill: Orioles in control. Red fill: Rays. The dot is right now — runners and outs included.

Runs by inning

1234567891151212
Rays · 10 H, 0 EOrioles · 16 H, 0 E
100%
Orioles win — Statball prediction
Kalshi price of “Orioles win” — pays $1 if they do
our live number minus theirs
pregame pick

Latest plays

top 9Victor Mesa Jr. pops out to third baseman Weston Wilson in foul territory.
top 9Oliver Dunn grounds out, second baseman Jeremiah Jackson to first baseman Pete Alonso.
top 9Chandler Simpson grounds out, first baseman Pete Alonso to pitcher Anthony Nunez.
bot 8Coby Mayo flies out to left fielder Chandler Simpson.
bot 8Pete Alonso grounds out, first baseman Ryan Vilade to second baseman Richie Palacios to pitcher Jonathan Heasley. Adley Rutschman to 3rd.
bot 8Adley Rutschman doubles (12) on a line drive to right fielder Victor Mesa Jr.
bot 8Weston Wilson flies out to left fielder Chandler Simpson.
top 8Hunter Feduccia strikes out swinging.

Context the model prices

Tampa Bay Rays
9 on the injured list (2 stars) · bullpen threw 57 batters faced over the last two days
Hunter Feduccia 3-4 · Jonathan Aranda 2-2 · Richie Palacios 1-4
Baltimore Orioles
9 on the injured list (1 star) · bullpen threw 36 batters faced over the last two days
Gunnar Henderson 2-4, 2 HR, 3 RBI · Blaze Alexander 3-4, 1 HR, 6 RBI · Adley Rutschman 3-4

Updates every minute while live. Every percentage on this page is a Statball prediction — our proprietary models price far more than the box score: team strength, starting pitchers, injuries, bullpen workload, lineups, and the live game state. Market price is the live Kalshi mid where an open market exists. Pregame picks and the season ledger live on Today’s Picks.