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Tampa Bay Rays
7
0% — our call
Final
Baltimore Orioles
9
100% — our call
Tampa Bay Raysgame flow — win probabilityBaltimore Orioles
100500startB1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B9B10B11B12B13now
Statball’s live prediction, not a league stat. Dark fill: Orioles in control. Red fill: Rays. The dot is right now — runners and outs included.

Runs by inning

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Rays · 12 H, 4 EOrioles · 12 H, 1 E
100%
Orioles win — Statball prediction
Kalshi price of “Orioles win” — pays $1 if they do
our live number minus theirs
pregame pick

Latest plays

bot 13Colton Cowser homers (3) on a fly ball to right center field. Blaze Alexander scores.79
bot 13Jackson Holliday out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Cedric Mullins. Leody Taveras scores. Blaze Alexander to 2nd.77
bot 13Blaze Alexander singles on a line drive to center fielder Cedric Mullins. Leody Taveras to 3rd.
bot 13Leody Taveras doubles (8) on a sharp line drive to right fielder Victor Mesa Jr. Jeremiah Jackson scores.76
top 13Nick Fortes out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Leody Taveras. Richie Palacios scores.75
top 13Victor Mesa Jr. out on a sacrifice bunt, third baseman Jackson Holliday to second baseman Jeremiah Jackson. Richie Palacios to 3rd. Cedric Mullins to 2nd.
top 13Cedric Mullins singles on a ground ball to left fielder Taylor Ward. Oliver Dunn scores. Richie Palacios to 2nd.65
top 13Richie Palacios singles on a bunt ground ball to third baseman Jackson Holliday. Oliver Dunn to 3rd.

Context the model prices

Tampa Bay Rays
7 on the injured list (2 stars) · bullpen threw 5 batters faced over the last two days
Jonathan Aranda 2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI · Chandler Simpson 3-6 · Victor Mesa Jr. 1-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
Baltimore Orioles
9 on the injured list (1 star) · bullpen threw 28 batters faced over the last two days
Blaze Alexander 3-5, 1 RBI · Pete Alonso 3-5, 1 RBI · Colton Cowser 1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI

Updates every minute while live. Every percentage on this page is a Statball prediction — our proprietary models price far more than the box score: team strength, starting pitchers, injuries, bullpen workload, lineups, and the live game state. Market price is the live Kalshi mid where an open market exists. Pregame picks and the season ledger live on Today’s Picks.