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Boston Red Sox
5
100% — our call
Final
Baltimore Orioles
3
0% — our call
Boston Red Soxgame flow — win probabilityBaltimore Orioles
100500startB1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B9now
Statball’s live prediction, not a league stat. Dark fill: Orioles in control. Red fill: Sox. The dot is right now — runners and outs included.

Runs by inning

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Sox · 7 H, 0 EOrioles · 6 H, 1 E
0%
Orioles win — Statball prediction
Kalshi price of “Orioles win” — pays $1 if they do
our live number minus theirs
pregame pick

Latest plays

bot 9Samuel Basallo strikes out swinging, catcher Connor Wong to first baseman Willson Contreras.
bot 9Tyler O'Neill strikes out swinging.
bot 9Pete Alonso flies out sharply to left fielder Jarren Duran.
top 9Jarren Duran strikes out swinging.
top 9Andruw Monasterio pops out to shortstop Gunnar Henderson.
top 9Connor Wong grounds out, shortstop Gunnar Henderson to first baseman Pete Alonso.
bot 8Adley Rutschman flies out to center fielder Ceddanne Rafaela.
bot 8Gunnar Henderson singles on a line drive to left fielder Jarren Duran. Colton Cowser scores.53

Context the model prices

Boston Red Sox
4 on the injured list (1 star) · bullpen threw 33 batters faced over the last two days
Willson Contreras 1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI · Ceddanne Rafaela 2-4, 1 RBI · Wilyer Abreu 1-3
Baltimore Orioles
8 on the injured list · bullpen threw 43 batters faced over the last two days
Samuel Basallo 2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI · Gunnar Henderson 2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI · Adley Rutschman 1-4

Updates every minute while live. Every percentage on this page is a Statball prediction — our proprietary models price far more than the box score: team strength, starting pitchers, injuries, bullpen workload, lineups, and the live game state. Market price is the live Kalshi mid where an open market exists. Pregame picks and the season ledger live on Today’s Picks.