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New York Yankees
3
0% — our call
Final
Arizona Diamondbacks
5
100% — our call
New York Yankeesgame flow — win probabilityArizona Diamondbacks
100500startB1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B9now
Statball’s live prediction, not a league stat. Dark fill: Diamondbacks in control. Red fill: Yankees. The dot is right now — runners and outs included.

Runs by inning

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Yankees · 6 H, 1 EDiamondbacks · 7 H, 0 E
100%
Diamondbacks win — Statball prediction
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Kalshi price of “Diamondbacks win” — pays $1 if they do
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our live number minus theirs
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pregame pick

Latest plays

bot 9Pavin Smith homers (3) on a fly ball to right center field. Ildemaro Vargas scores.3–5
bot 9Jordan Lawlar strikes out swinging.
top 9Amed Rosario grounds out, shortstop Geraldo Perdomo to first baseman Jose Fernandez.
top 9Anthony Volpe strikes out swinging.
top 9George Lombard Jr. grounds out sharply, second baseman Ketel Marte to first baseman Jose Fernandez.
bot 8Tim Tawa called out on strikes.
bot 8Nolan Arenado singles on a line drive to left fielder Cody Bellinger. Gabriel Moreno to 2nd.
bot 8Corbin Carroll strikes out swinging.

Context the model prices

New York Yankees
0 on the injured list · bullpen threw 0 batters faced over the last two days
Austin Wells 2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI · Heliot Ramos 1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI · José Caballero 2-2
Arizona Diamondbacks
0 on the injured list · bullpen threw 0 batters faced over the last two days
Pavin Smith 1-1, 1 HR, 2 RBI · Nolan Arenado 2-4 · Jordan Lawlar 1-4, 2 RBI

Updates every minute while live. Every percentage on this page is a Statball prediction — our proprietary models price far more than the box score: team strength, starting pitchers, injuries, bullpen workload, lineups, and the live game state. Market price is the live Kalshi mid where an open market exists. Pregame picks and the season ledger live on Today’s Picks.